PROJECTION:
SUSILO BAMBANG YUDHOYONO WILL BE INDONESIA’S NEXT PRESIDENT 

Jakarta, 20 September 2004

In the second and final round of Indonesia’s first ever direct presidential election on Monday, the ticket of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla has emerged as the winner with a projected 61.2% of the vote. The other ticket of Megawati Soekarnoputri and Hasyim Muzadi received the remaining 38.8% of the vote.

These projections are based on a national Quick Count of actual polling station results conducted by the nonpartisan Jakarta-based Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES).

The Quick Count is not an exit poll. These projections are based on an actual observation of the vote count in a statistically significant sample of 1,362 polling stations – representing the votes of 283,442 voters – distributed throughout Indonesia. The Quick Count conducted by LP3ES uses a globally-accepted methodology that has proven successful in scores of elections around the world over the past two decades, including in Indonesia in April and July of this year. It was conducted with technical assistance from the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) and supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Metro TV and the Tifa Foundation.

The expected margin of error for these projections is no greater than plus or minus 1.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

LP3ES is a nongovernmental, nonprofit, independent research institute established in 1971. Since 1993 LP3ES has conducted a variety of quantitative research, including public opinion surveys. LP3ES conducted a Quick Count in 1997 in Jakarta, in 1999 in West Nusa Tenggara, and nationally in April and July 2004.

NDI is a nongovernmental, nonpartisan organization based in Washington, D.C. that promotes democracy around the world. In cooperation with local organizations, NDI has conducted Quick Counts in more than 25 countries.

Press releases regarding the April and July 2004 rounds of elections in Indonesia can be found at www.jurdil.org.

For further information, please contact:

Muhammad Husain
LP3ES, Head of Research Division
Jl. S. Parman No. 81, Jakarta
Tel: 62-21-567-4211, 563-0233, Mobile: 62-812-924-9394
Email: husain@lp3es.or.id

Table 1: Projected Vote, President and Vice President, Sep 20, 2004

            * Data as of 18:20 West Indonesia Time, 20 Sep. 2004